Rand Paul wins Republican senate nomination in Kentucky

It is no surprise to anybody that Rand Paul has won the Republican nomination for senate against establishment candidate Trey Grayson. Though not suprising, the result is very significant. Rand Paul is well known to be a Tea Party movement sympathizer, even going so far as to quote Tea Party members during his victory speech earlier tonight. He has been riding a wave of anti-establishment anger in Kentucky, as Trey Grayson received the endorsement of its other senator, minority leader Mitch McConnell. He is currently the second Republican primary contender to lose because they did not get cozy enough with the Tea Party movement. The first of course, is lame duck Utah senator Bob Bennett. If a Tea Party candidate can defeat an establishment Republican with more votes than have ever been cast in a Kentucky senate primary election, one could conclude the movement is one to be reckoned with. If I were the GOP leadership, I would be very scared right now.

Who will be riding the Ron Paul blimp in 2012?

There is a spirited debate over who actually constituted Ron Paul's base in the 2008 presidential primaries. Ron Paul successfully captured the young Republican vote and created much enthusiasm among this demographic. This is insignificant, however, as young Americans are overwhelmingly Democratic or independently affiliated. The key to Ron Paul's base is the current following of the Tea Party.

Ron Paul's son, Rand Paul, is currently the front runner in the Republican senatorial primary in Kentucky to fill the open seat of retiring senator Jim Bunning. He has never held political office before this campaign and shares many of the libertarian views of his father. He has quickly pulled away from the establishment candidate, Trey Grayson, capturing much of the die-hard Republican base that one needs to win any Republican primary fight. His campaign is relevant, because it is drawing on much of the Tea Party movement's enthusiasm and supporters.

So my question is, will Ron Paul run for president in 2012? And if he does, will he become the Tea Party insurgent for the Republican nomination? Ron Paul is no orthodox conservative. Instead, he is a paleo-conservative, a dying breed of anti-interventionist Republicans. It would be easy to criticize many stances he has taken which pitted himself against the neo-conservatives in his party, particularly on international issues. For instance, he opposes the Iraq wars and all foreign involvement. He also does not believe in free trade, favoring protectionism. Some of these stances could be criticized by the modern conservative base who love to point out flaws in a candidate's credentials.

Sarah Palin, once thought to be the darling of the Tea Party movement, is now completely irrelevant from the 2012 elections. Ron Paul could fill this vacuum of anti-establishment anger present in the primary electorate. It would be easy for him to overcome a moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, but he would have to change some of his stances. It will be interesting to see if Paul molds himself into something more digestible, or continues to pursue his unique path of libertarianism. If the Kentucky senatorial primary stands as any lesson, it is likely that conservative voters will hop on the Ron Paul blimp, only to pull it down during the general election.